Winthrop Poll results - wistv.com - Columbia, South Carolina

Winthrop Poll results

December 2011 Winthrop Poll Results  

  

Among Those Likely to Vote in SC GOP Presidential Primary 

Newt Gingrich Gets Nod Over Mitt Romney 38.4% to 21.5%  

Rick Perry Comes in Distant Third With 9% 

   

Among SC Democrats, Republicans and Independents Combined 

81.4% Disapprove of the Way Congress is Doing its Job  

47.8% Feel Same Way About Obama 

But Nearly 60% Say It's Very or Somewhat Likely He'll Be Re-Elected 

Almost 50% Think Economic Conditions in U.S. Getting Worse 

And Over 65% Say the Country is Headed in the Wrong Direction 

One-in-Three Disapproves of the Occupy Wall Street Movement 

  

Among SC Republicans 

More Than One-in-Four Think SC Headed in Wrong Direction, 

Almost 60% Say Personal Financial Situation is Excellent or Good 

83.3% Say They Are Not Part of Tea Party Movement,  

But 61.4% Approve of the Tea Party 

  

  

The results of the December 2011 Winthrop Poll taken between November 27-December 4, 2011 are in. The poll interviewed 1073 registered voters from South Carolina.  

Results which use all respondents have a margin of error of +/- 2.99% at the 95% confidence level. Reported results using a subset of the entire sample will naturally have a higher margin of error. 

Results for Likely SC Republican Presidential Primary Voters only have a margin of error of +/-5.38%. 

  

Among the Winthrop Poll findings:  

  • When asked about Barack Obama's job performance as president, 44.8% of all respondents approved, while 47.8% disapproved.  
  • Among likely Republican Presidential Primary voters, 38.4% said their first choice to be the Republican nominee was Newt Gingrich. This marks a dramatic jump from the September 2011 Winthrop Poll when Gingrich won just 5.3% of the vote. Mitt Romney came in second with 21.5%, while Rick Perry who placed first in the Winthrop Poll in mid-September, came in third with 9%. 
  • It is clear that accusations of sexual harassment and an extra-marital affair had already taken a toll on Herman Cain in South Carolina before he suspended his campaign. Whereas in September's poll, 7.7% of likely primary voters chose him—and his star appeared on the rise from April's Winthrop Poll when he posted 2.1%--in this latest survey he dropped to 6.6%.  
  • 63.4% of all respondents said it is NOT possible to address national budget concerns without any tax increases on any groups. 
  • Affection for the Tea Party in South Carolina may be on the wane. Among Republicans, 83.3% said they did not consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement—a marked jump from the September Winthrop Poll, when 67.8% felt that way. Meanwhile, 61.4% say they approve of the Tea Party. 
  • Almost one-in-four Republicans said they were not familiar enough with the Tea Party movement to have an opinion of it. 

  

  

RESULTS FROM THE WINTHROP POLL: 

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nikki Haley is handling her job as governor of South Carolina?

 

All

Only those with an opinion

Democrat

Republican

Independent (& other)

Approve

34.6%

44.6%

18.0%

52.5%

35.9%

Disapprove

43.0%

55.4%

64.5%

21.7%

40.9%

Not Sure

20.2%

 

15.5%

24.2%

20.6%

Refused

2.2%

 

1.9%

1.6%

2.6%

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the South Carolina State Legislature is handling its job?

 

All

Democrat

Republican

Independent (& other)

Approve

34.3%

27.9%

46.0%

30.5%

Disapprove

41.6%

53.3%

25.2%

44.7%

Not Sure

22.1%

16.6%

26.7%

23.2%

Refused

2.0%

2.2%

2.2%

1.6%

 

Whether you approve or disapprove of her overall performance, I'd like for you to think about your expectations for Nikki Haley's performance as governor of South Carolina.  Since her inauguration as governor in early January of this year, would you say that her performance has exceeded your expectations, met your expectations, or failed to meet your expectations?

 

All

Democrat

Republican

Independent (& other)

Greatly Exceeded Expectations

3.8%

3.3%

5.0%

3.2%

Somewhat Exceeded Expectations

4.3%

3.9%

5.6%

3.7%

Met Expectations

40.8%

24.7%

58.4%

42.1%

Somewhat Failed to Meet Expectations

23.2%

30.6%

18.4%

20.3%

Greatly Failed to Meet Expectations

18.6%

28.1%

5.6%

20.5%

Not Sure

8.7%

8.3%

6.6%

9.5%

Refused

.7%

1.1%

.3%

.8%

 

How would you describe the working relationship between Governor Haley and the state legislature this past year? Good? Bad? Or neither good nor bad?

 

All

Democrat

Republican

Independent (& other)

Very Good

3.1%

2.8%

6.0%

1.0%

Somewhat Good

12.4%

11.8%

12.9%

12.6%

Neither Good nor Bad

47.1%

42.6%

47.3%

51.7%

Somewhat Bad

13.7%

17.6%

12.2%

11.3%

Very Bad

11.1%

14.3%

6.0%

12.3%

Don't Know

11.7%

9.8%

14.4%

10.5%

Refused

.9%

1.1%

1.3%

.5%

 

[NOTE: The following question was ONLY asked of those who said the relationship was "Somewhat Bad," or "Very Bad."  This data has a margin of error of +/- 6.02%.  This sub-sample is too small to further break the data down by party.

Who would you say is more to blame for the bad relationship between them? Governor Haley or

the State Legislature or Both Equally? [ANSWERS ROTATED]

 

All

Governor

36.0%

Legislature

8.2%

Both Equally

51.6%

Don't Know

3.0%

Refused

1.1%

 

[NOTE: this question was ONLY asked of those respondents who CURRENTLY receive Social Security or Medicare benefits]  

Would you be willing to have your current Social Security or Medicare benefits reduced in order to address national budget concerns?

 

All

Democrat

Republican

Independent (& other)

Yes

18.8%

16.4%

17.7%

22.4%

No

76.1%

78.4%

76.1%

72.4%

Not Sure

4.2%

3.4%

5.3%

4.3%

Refused

.9%

1.7%

.9%

.9%

 

[NOTE: This question was ONLY asked of those respondents who do NOT currently receive Social Security or Medicare benefits] 

Would you be willing to have your future Social Security or Medicare benefits reduced in order to address national budget concerns?

 

All

Democrat

Republican

Independent (& other)

Yes

28.2%

26.1%

28.4%

29.9%

No

64.8%

71.0%

62.0%

61.0%

Not Sure

6.4%

1.7%

9.1%

8.7%

Refused

.6%

1.2%

.5%

.4%

 

[NOTE: This question was ONLY asked of those respondents who do NOT currently receive Social Security or Medicare benefits]  

Would you be willing to have the retirement age at which you can receive full Social Security or Medicare benefits raised to 70 years old in order to address national budget concerns?

 

All

Democrat

Republican

Independent (& other)

Yes

30.6%

22.6%

33.2%

36.5%

No

66.1%

74.5%

64.4%

58.9%

Not Sure

3.2%

2.5%

2.4%

4.6%

Refused

.1%

.4%

0.0%

0.0%

 


Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 

 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Approve 

 

44.8% 

 

90.6% 

 

6.5% 

 

33.0% 

 

Disapprove 

 

47.8% 

 

6.1% 

 

89.8% 

 

53.0% 

 

Not Sure 

 

6.4% 

 

3.0% 

 

2.5% 

 

12.4% 

 

Refused 

 

1.0% 

 

.3% 

 

1.2% 

 

1.6% 

 

  

  

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the United States Congress is handling its job? 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Approve 

 

12.1% 

 

16.6% 

 

9.0% 

 

10.8% 

 

Disapprove 

 

81.4% 

 

77.6% 

 

83.6% 

 

83.6% 

 

Not Sure 

 

5.9% 

 

5.5% 

 

6.2% 

 

5.3% 

 

Refused 

 

.6% 

 

.3% 

 

1.2% 

 

.3% 

 

  

  

Thinking about the current path that our nation is taking, do you think our country is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction? 

  

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Right Track 

 

22.3% 

 

42.4% 

 

5.3% 

 

17.7% 

 

Wrong Direction 

 

65.7% 

 

39.4% 

 

88.5% 

 

72.2% 

 

Not Sure 

 

10.7% 

 

17.1% 

 

5.6% 

 

8.5% 

 

Refused 

 

1.3% 

 

1.1% 

 

.6% 

 

1.6% 

 

  

  

Thinking about the current path that South Carolina is taking, do you think our state is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction? 

  

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Right Track 

 

41.4% 

 

27.8% 

 

58.7% 

 

40.2% 

 

Wrong Direction 

 

42.7% 

 

56.5% 

 

26.1% 

 

43.6% 

 

Not Sure 

 

15.0% 

 

14.6% 

 

14.6% 

 

14.9% 

 

Refused 

 

1.0% 

 

1.1% 

 

.6% 

 

1.3% 

 

  

  

[NOTE: the following two questions were open-ended.  The interviewer coded the respondent's answer into one of dozens of possible categories] 

What do you think is the most important problem facing the United States of America today? TOP THREE RESPONSES GIVEN. 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Economy/ Economic-financial crisis 

30.7% 

 

Unemployment/ jobs 

37.4% 

 

Economy/ Economic-financial crisis 

33.2% 

 

Economy/ Economic-financial crisis 

32.7% 

 

Unemployment/ jobs 

24.9% 

 

Economy/ Economic-financial crisis 

26.6% 

 

Unemployment/ jobs 

14.9% 

 

Unemployment/ jobs 

21.6% 

 

Budget Deficit or Debt 

8.7% 

 

Politicians/ Government 

5.8% 

 

Budget Deficit or Debt 

14.6% 

 

Tie:
Politicians/ Government AND 

Budget Deficit or Debt 

7.9% 

 

  

  

What do you think is the most important problem facing the state of South Carolina today? TOP THREE RESPONSES GIVEN. 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Unemployment/ Jobs 

38.2% 

 

Unemployment/ Jobs 

46.2% 

 

Unemployment/ Jobs 

32.9% 

 

Unemployment/ Jobs 

34.6% 

 

Economy/ Economic-financial crisis 

21.1% 

 

Economy/ Economic-financial crisis 

17.3% 

  

 

Economy/ Economic-financial crisis 

23.7% 

 

Economy/ Economic-financial crisis 

22.6% 

 

Education 

10.8% 

 

Education 

9.7% 

 

Education 

8.9% 

 

Education 

12.8% 

 

  

  

Although we do not yet know who his Republican opponent will be, how likely do you think it is that Barack Obama will be re-elected president in 2012?  Very Likely, Somewhat Likely, Not Very Likely, or Not At All Likely? 

  

 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Very Likely 

 

25.8% 

 

50.0% 

 

5.9% 

 

19.2% 

 

Somewhat Likely 

 

33.0% 

 

35.4% 

 

25.7% 

 

36.8% 

 

Not Very Likely 

 

19.9% 

 

8.3% 

 

32.5% 

 

20.8% 

 

Not at All Likely 

 

17.8% 

 

4.1% 

 

31.9% 

 

19.2% 

 

Not Sure 

 

3.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

3.7% 

 

3.4% 

 

Refused 

 

.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

.3% 

 

.5% 

 

  

 

 
******************************************************************************************************** 

NOTE: The following question was ONLY asked of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents who "definitely" plan to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary in South Carolina. 

NOTE: As of Herman Cain's withdrawal, we left Herman Cain's name on the list for the sake of comparability and validity.  Assuming anyone who picked Cain had not heard of his withdrawal, we asked, "If Herman Cain drops out of the race, who would you support?"  Between the time of Cain's announcement and the end of polling, only 7 individuals responded to the initial question with support for Cain.  In response to the follow up question, Gingrich got the support of 4 erstwhile Cain supporters, Romney got the support of 2 erstwhile Cain supporters, and ‘Not Sure' got the support of 1 erstwhile Cain supporter.  These numbers are far too small to have any statistical meaning whatsoever.  If, after initially hearing the list of possible nominees, a respondent said, "I thought Cain dropped out," interviewers were instructed to confirm this and repeat the question. 

 

I'm going to read the titles and names of 9 people who have been mentioned as possible candidates for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination.  The names are in alphabetical order.  Please listen to all the names before selecting one. 

Thinking ahead to the 2012 Presidential election, who would you vote for as your FIRST CHOICE to be the next Republican nominee for President if the primary election were held today? 

  

 

  

 

Likely SC 2012 Repub Pres Primary Voters 

 

Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann 

 

5.4% 

 

Former CEO of Godfather's Pizza Herman Cain 

 

6.6% 

 

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich 

 

38.4% 

 

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman 

 

1.4% 

 

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson 

 

0.0% 

 

Texas Representative Ron Paul  

 

4.1% 

 

Texas Governor Rick Perry  

 

9.0% 

 

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney  

 

21.5% 

 

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum  

 

3.1% 

 

Other 

 

.7% 

 

Not Sure 

 

9.1% 

 

Refused 

 

.7% 

 

 
************************************************************************************************************ 

How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very  

good, fairly good, fairly bad or very bad? 

  

 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Very Good 

 

1.5% 

 

2.7% 

 

.6% 

 

1.3% 

 

Fairly Good 

 

16.3% 

 

29.1% 

 

8.0% 

 

11.1% 

 

Fairly Bad 

 

37.6% 

 

41.2% 

 

35.6% 

 

35.3% 

 

Very Bad 

 

43.5% 

 

25.0% 

 

55.1% 

 

51.3% 

 

Not Sure 

 

1.0% 

 

1.6% 

 

.3% 

 

1.1% 

 

Refused  

 

.1% 

 

.3% 

 

.3% 

 

0.0% 

 

  

  

Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse? 

  

 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Getting Better 

 

41.8% 

 

60.6% 

 

25.6% 

 

37.5% 

 

Getting Worse 

 

47.4% 

 

28.9% 

 

62.3% 

 

53.0% 

 

Not Sure 

 

10.4% 

 

10.3% 

 

11.4% 

 

9.2% 

 

Refused 

 

.4% 

 

.3% 

 

.6% 

 

.3% 

 

  

  

How would you rate the condition of the economy of South Carolina these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad or very bad? 

  

 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Very Good 

 

1.4% 

 

1.4% 

 

1.6% 

 

1.1% 

 

Fairly Good 

 

33.1% 

 

35.5% 

 

33.2% 

 

30.8% 

 

Fairly Bad 

 

43.5% 

 

37.7% 

 

50.6% 

 

43.4% 

 

Very Bad 

 

19.7% 

 

22.7% 

 

12.4% 

 

22.6% 

 

Not Sure 

 

2.2% 

 

2.5% 

 

1.9% 

 

2.1% 

 

Refused  

 

.2% 

 

.3% 

 

.3% 

 

0.0% 

 

  

  

Right now, do you think that economic conditions in South Carolina are getting better or getting worse? 

  

 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Getting Better 

 

43.7% 

 

40.4% 

 

46.9% 

 

43.9% 

 

Getting Worse 

 

40.2% 

 

47.4% 

 

35.1% 

 

38.4% 

 

Not Sure 

 

15.1% 

 

11.1% 

 

17.4% 

 

16.6% 

 

Refused 

 

.9% 

 

1.1% 

 

.6% 

 

1.1% 

 

  

  

Right now, do you believe that economic conditions in South Carolina are better than those of the nation as a whole, worse than those of the nation as a whole, or about the same as those of the nation as a whole? 

  

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Better 

 

18.2% 

 

10.7% 

 

28.4% 

 

16.8% 

 

Worse 

 

23.8% 

 

30.9% 

 

13.9% 

 

25.5% 

 

Same 

 

54.2% 

 

55.9% 

 

53.4% 

 

53.5% 

 

Not Sure 

 

3.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

2.8% 

 

3.9% 

 

Refused 

 

.6% 

 

.3% 

 

1.5% 

 

.3% 

 

  

  

How would you rate your financial situation today? As excellent, good, only fair, or poor? 

  

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Excellent 

 

7.3% 

 

3.6% 

 

10.5% 

 

8.2% 

 

Good 

 

38.5% 

 

33.1% 

 

49.4% 

 

33.9% 

 

Only Fair 

 

38.4% 

 

48.1% 

 

29.9% 

 

36.8% 

 

Poor 

 

14.5% 

 

14.4% 

 

9.0% 

 

19.2% 

 

Not Sure 

 

.5% 

 

.8% 

 

.3% 

 

.3% 

 

Refused 

 

.8% 

 

0.0% 

 

.9% 

 

1.6% 

 

  

Right now, do you think that your financial situation as a whole is getting better or getting worse? 

  

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Getting Better 

 

39.4% 

 

49.3% 

 

35.0% 

 

33.6% 

 

Getting Worse 

 

40.3% 

 

33.6% 

 

45.2% 

 

42.6% 

 

Not Sure 

 

19.5% 

 

17.1% 

 

19.2% 

 

22.5% 

 

Refused 

 

.8% 

 

0.0% 

 

.6% 

 

1.3% 

 

  

  

Would you be willing to cut defense spending in order to address national budget concerns? 

  

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Yes 

 

46.5% 

 

56.1% 

 

33.1% 

 

49.1% 

 

No 

 

45.4% 

 

32.8% 

 

62.2% 

 

43.3% 

 

Not Sure 

 

7.3% 

 

9.4% 

 

4.3% 

 

7.4% 

 

Refused 

 

.8% 

 

1.7% 

 

.3% 

 

.3% 

 

  

  

Do you think it is possible to address national budget concerns without any tax increases on any groups, or would some tax increases be required to address national budget concerns? 

,   

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Possible to Do Without Tax Increase 

 

29.9% 

 

13.0% 

 

45.5% 

 

33.4% 

 

NOT Possible to Do Without Tax Increase 

 

63.4% 

 

80.4% 

 

47.4% 

 

60.5% 

 

Not Sure 

 

6.0% 

 

5.5% 

 

6.8% 

 

5.3% 

 

Refused 

 

.8% 

 

1.1% 

 

.3% 

 

.8% 

 

  

  

We'd like to find out how familiar folks are with various issues in South Carolina.  Some leaders from both parties have mentioned the importance of dealing with issues related to the South Carolina public employee pension program.  How familiar are you with issues related to the South Carolina public employee pension program, would you say you are very familiar with the issues, somewhat familiar with the issues, have heard it mentioned but are not familiar with the specifics, or have not heard of the issues at all? 

  

 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Very Familiar 

 

7.8% 

 

6.9% 

 

6.8% 

 

9.7% 

 

Somewhat Familiar 

 

23.9% 

 

19.4% 

 

26.6% 

 

26.5% 

 

Heard Mentioned 

 

31.2% 

 

31.0% 

 

31.0% 

 

31.8% 

 

Not Heard 

 

36.5% 

 

41.8% 

 

35.3% 

 

31.5% 

 

Refused 

 

.6% 

 

.8% 

 

.3% 

 

.5% 

 

  

  

NOTE: The following question was ONLY asked of those who file a SC income tax return.  Categories were not given; interviewers coded open ended answer into the listed categories after the respondent answered the question. 

To the best of your knowledge, what is the highest marginal percentage rate for personal income tax in the state of South Carolina? 

  

 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

7 percent 

 

5.6% 

 

2.8% 

 

6.7% 

 

7.1% 

 

Under 10 percent but not 7 percent 

 

4.2% 

 

3.8% 

 

3.9% 

 

4.7% 

 

Between 11 percent and 20 percent 

 

6.3% 

 

4.5% 

 

6.7% 

 

7.6% 

 

Between 21 percent and 35 percent 

 

10.8% 

 

7.3% 

 

10.9% 

 

13.8% 

 

Over 35 percent 

 

4.4% 

 

5.2% 

 

5.6% 

 

2.9% 

 

Don't Know/ Not Sure 

 

65.6% 

 

70.9% 

 

64.1% 

 

62.1% 

 

Refused 

 

3.1% 

 

5.5% 

 

2.1% 

 

1.8% 

 

  

  

In general, would you say you approve or disapprove of the Occupy Wall Street movement or are you not familiar enough with the Occupy Wall Street movement to have an opinion? 

  

 

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Approve 

 

24.2% 

 

32.2% 

 

11.1% 

 

27.9% 

 

Disapprove 

 

33.2% 

 

10.2% 

 

57.3% 

 

35.3% 

 

Not Familiar 

 

36.6% 

 

49.6% 

 

26.9% 

 

31.6% 

 

Not Sure 

 

5.5% 

 

6.6% 

 

4.3% 

 

5.3% 

 

Refused 

 

.6% 

 

1.4% 

 

.3% 

 

0.0% 

 

  

In general, would you say you approve or disapprove of the Tea Party movement or are you not familiar enough with the Tea Party movement to have an opinion? 

  

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Approve 

 

31.4% 

 

5.2% 

 

61.4% 

 

31.7% 

 

Disapprove 

 

34.3% 

 

54.7% 

 

10.3% 

 

35.2% 

 

Not Familiar 

 

28.7% 

 

36.5% 

 

23.1% 

 

25.9% 

 

Not Sure 

 

4.8% 

 

2.5% 

 

5.0% 

 

6.1% 

 

Refused 

 

.4% 

 

1.1% 

 

.3% 

 

1.1% 

 

  

  

Would you consider yourself a MEMBER of the Tea Party Movement? 

  

  

 

All 

 

Democrat 

 

Republican 

 

Independent (& other) 

 

Yes 

 

6.8% 

 

1.1% 

 

14.8% 

 

5.5% 

 

No 

 

89.8% 

 

93.9% 

 

83.3% 

 

90.8% 

 

Not Sure 

 

3.1% 

 

4.4% 

 

1.5% 

 

3.2% 

 

Refused 

 

.4% 

 

.6% 

 

.3% 

 

.5% 

 

  

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